Introduction As we enter summer 2025, the U.S. trucking industry is showing signs of stabilization and moderate recovery. Fuel prices are easing, capacity is tightening slightly, and driver availability is improving compared to previous years. However, market conditions vary significantly by freight type and region. In this blog post, we’ll explore expert insights and current data for the three major trucking segments dry van, refrigerated (reefer), and flatbed to help shippers and carriers prepare for the months ahead.
Dry Van Freight: Stabilizing with Pockets of Strength
Demand & Volume Dry van volumes are forecast to grow modestly, around +0.6% year-over-year. Consumer spending remains steady but has shifted toward services rather than goods. Seasonal boosts, such as back-to-school retail restocking and household moves in June, will offer temporary volume spikes.
Rates & Capacity Spot rates are trending upward slightly, averaging around $2.15–$2.25 per mile, up about 4% year-over-year. Capacity is tightening as truck postings are down 41% YoY. Load-to-truck ratios (LTR) are climbing, signaling firmer conditions. Expect mini surges around holiday weeks and produce season.
Driver Availability Driver availability has improved, with increased application rates and better retention. Large carriers report fewer labor bottlenecks, though quality control remains a hiring concern.
Regional Hotspots
- Tight: South Texas, Southeast (Georgia, Carolinas)
- Improving: Midwest, California (late summer)
- Looser: Northeast, Mountain West
Refrigerated (Reefer) Freight: Peak Season, Regional Spikes
Demand & Volume Reefer demand is driven by summer produce harvests. Expect significant seasonal spikes in Georgia, Texas, and California. Annual growth is modest (~+0.9% YoY) as produce volumes face some pressure from lower yields and fewer planted acres.
Rates & Capacity Spot rates during peak season could average $2.50–$2.60 per mile. Load-to-truck ratios are climbing into the double digits. Contract rates are flat year-over-year, but regional spot surges are expected.
Driver Availability Reefer carriers have enough drivers, aided by improved retention and recruiting. While demanding, the job is being filled by a more stable driver pool.
Regional Hotspots
- Early Summer: Southeast (GA, SC, FL), South Texas
- Mid-Summer: Central & Coastal California
- Late Summer: Pacific Northwest, Upper Midwest
Flatbed Freight: The Standout Performer
Demand & Volume Flatbed leads all segments with projected growth of ~3.1% YoY. Summer is peak season due to construction, agriculture, and infrastructure projects. The Southeast and Southwest are especially active.
Rates & Capacity Spot rates could exceed $2.75/mile nationally, with premium lanes crossing $3.00. Load-to-truck ratios are extremely tight, hovering around 30:1 and expected to remain high. Contract rates are rising mid-single digits.
Driver & Equipment Availability Retention is high, and pay has improved. However, onboarding new flatbed drivers is slower due to the physical demands of the job. Trailer availability is good, but driver supply may limit rapid expansion.
Regional Hotspots
- Tight: Southeast, Texas, South Central U.S.
- Balanced: Midwest (project-dependent)
- Looser: Northeast, some Northern Plains states
Fuel Prices: A Neutral Factor The EIA forecasts diesel to average $3.60/gallon in Q2 and $3.72 in Q3. This slight summer rise is normal and remains below 2024 levels. Fuel costs are not expected to be a disruptive factor this year.
Conclusion Summer 2025 promises a more stable freight environment compared to previous years. While dry van and reefer markets are gradually firming, flatbed is leading the way with strong demand and tightening capacity. Regional nuances and seasonal factors like produce and construction will shape conditions. Proactive planning and regional awareness will be essential for success in the trucking market this summer.
Sources:
- DAT Freight & Analytics (www.dat.com)
- U.S. Energy Information Administration (www.eia.gov)
- FreightWaves (www.freightwaves.com)
- FTR Transportation Intelligence (www.ftrintel.com)
- Truckstop.com Market Trends
- American Trucking Associations (www.trucking.org)
- Bureau of Transportation Statistics
- National Retail Federation (www.nrf.com)
- Federal Motor Carrier Safety Administration (FMCSA)
