The fresh produce trucking market across the U.S., Mexico, and Canada has been anything but predictable over the past year. After a volatile 2023 marked by low rates and carrier exits, 2024 saw the first signs of balance returning especially in the refrigerated sector. And now, in 2025, all eyes are on produce season as spot rates start to climb and capacity tightens in key markets. Here’s what you need to know.
???? Rates Are On the Rise
Reefer spot rates hit bottom in early 2024 but began climbing again by year’s end. As of spring 2025, rates are now averaging over $2.00 per mile, with seasonal peaks pushing them higher especially in produce-heavy lanes like Arizona and Florida.
???? In May 2025, Roadcheck week and peak produce overlapped, sending reefer rates to $2.05/mi, the highest in three years.
???? Contract rates lagged behind spot but are beginning to stabilize.
???? Capacity Tightens as Carriers Exit
The overcapacity crisis of 2023 began to correct in 2024. Thousands of small fleets exited the market, and high-profile reefer carriers shuttered operations. Now, with fewer trucks on the road, shippers are seeing:
✅ Increased tender rejections on produce loads
✅ Regional truck shortages in hot spots like Florida, Arizona, and Washington during harvest surges
✅ Stronger rate leverage for carriers with specialized capacity (like teams or cross-border certification)
???? Cross-Border Freight Surges And So Do Delays
Trade with Mexico hit record highs in 2024, with Mexican produce now making up over 30% of U.S. truckload fruit and vegetable imports. But it hasn’t been smooth:
???? Border delays in Feb 2025 (IT outages + security checks) caused 6–8 hour backups
???? Protests and bridge blockages at Laredo and Reynosa caused massive congestion
???? Despite the hurdles, Mexican exports especially berries and winter vegetables—are growing fast, and so is demand for reliable cross-border reefer carriers
???? Regulatory Pressure: Clean Reefers & Traceability
California’s emissions rules are pushing fleets to adopt electric or ultra-low-emission TRUs, with full compliance expected by 2029. At the same time, the FDA’s new FSMA traceability rule (effective 2026) is already leading many produce shippers to demand:
???? Real-time temp tracking
???? Chain-of-custody logs
???? Digital load records from carriers
????️ Seasonal Hot Spots to Watch
Each season brings regional surges that reshape the freight landscape:
- Winter: Yuma/Nogales overflowed with lettuce truck shortages drove rates up 6% YoY
- Spring: Florida’s watermelon wave and Mexico’s berry boom tightened capacity into the Northeast
- Summer: California and the Pacific Northwest dominate, with surges in strawberries, apples, and stone fruit
- Fall: Transition to desert production and Mexican fall veggies creates lane imbalance and brief shortages
???? Takeaways for Shippers & Carriers
✅ Book early during peak produce weeks
✅ Diversify lanes and watch cross-border policy updates closely
✅ Invest in cold chain tech traceability and visibility are now must-haves
✅ Expect rate pressure to continue rising through late 2025 as capacity exits and seasonal demand heat up
Final Thought:
The produce freight market in 2025 is evolving. With tighter capacity, volatile spot rates, and more regulatory oversight, success will come to those who plan ahead, stay flexible, and embrace smarter logistics tech.
