The U.S. freight market is entering August 2025 with a cautious sense of optimism. After nearly two years of soft demand, declining rates, and capacity oversupply, recent data shows the industry may finally be turning a corner.
Whether you’re a shipper, carrier, or freight broker, here’s what you should know heading into the back half of the year.
Demand: Stabilizing Across Modes
Freight volumes are no longer in freefall but recovery looks different across modes.
- Dry Van freight is showing modest improvement, driven by back-to-school retail shipments and stable consumer demand. Volumes are still below pandemic-era highs, but the floor seems to have formed.
- Refrigerated (Reefer) freight continues to outperform, thanks to produce season and year-round grocery demand. Load-to-truck ratios are up year-over-year, signaling tighter reefer capacity.
- Flatbed carriers remain challenged due to soft construction and manufacturing activity, though some sectors like automotive and infrastructure are showing early signs of life.
- Intermodal is quietly rebounding, with container volumes up around 8% year-over-year. Improved rail service and normalized import flows are helping restore balance.
Overall, shippers are still moving freight just more strategically, with leaner inventories and fewer “urgent” shipments than years past.
Rates: Rebound in Progress?
Spot rates, long in decline, are finally heading in the right direction.
- Van spot rates average ~$2.07/mile, up slightly month-over-month and for the first time, up year-over-year.
- Reefer rates are climbing seasonally ($2.40/mile), and flatbed rates ($2.57/mile) are holding firm despite low construction volumes.
- Contract rates are largely stable, with modest 1–2% year-over-year increases in some lanes.
Crucially, the gap between spot and contract pricing is narrowing a classic early signal of a freight cycle shift. For shippers, this may be the last few months of favorable contract renewals before upward pressure returns.
Diesel: Manageable but Rising
Fuel prices remain a wildcard. After falling in late 2024, diesel has crept up to ~$3.80/gallon nationally, driven by seasonal demand and global oil trends. California carriers face the highest prices (nearly $5/gal), while Gulf Coast rates remain the lowest (~$3.40).
Though fuel costs are far below the 2022 spike, carriers continue to emphasize route optimization, idle time reduction, and surcharges to stay profitable.
Drivers & Capacity: Temporary Relief
The ongoing driver shortage has eased but not for the right reasons. With fewer loads to haul, fleets are better staffed. The industry is still short an estimated 60,000 drivers, and experts predict that number will climb again when demand returns.
Wages continue to rise, averaging around $70,000/year for long-haul drivers, and turnover is still high, especially among over-the-road carriers.
The recent withdrawal of the federal speed limiter mandate in July was welcomed by many drivers and small fleets, offering a bit of breathing room from regulatory pressures.
Equipment: Supply Has Caught Up
New truck orders have slowed significantly in 2025, as carriers take a wait-and-see approach. High interest rates, elevated equipment prices, and uncertain emissions regulations are all contributing to fleet conservatism.
Used truck prices have normalized after their 2022 surge, creating better buying opportunities especially for well-capitalized fleets looking to refresh at lower cost.
Economic Headwinds Still Linger
While inflation has cooled (~2.7% YoY), interest rates remain elevated, and sectors like housing and manufacturing are still under pressure. That’s limiting demand in construction-heavy freight segments like flatbed and LTL.
However, consumer spending is stable, retail inventories are in better balance, and public infrastructure investment is adding long-term freight potential.
Looking Ahead
August is often a transitional month in freight and this year is no different. With hurricane season underway and peak shipping season on the horizon, expect more volatility in fuel pricing and freight capacity.
The good news? Load-to-truck ratios are climbing, spot rates are improving, and excess capacity is leaving the market. We may be witnessing the early stages of a recovery one that rewards carriers and logistics partners who stayed lean, efficient, and adaptable through the downturn.
