As we dive into the heart of summer, the freight world starts to heat up and not just because of the temperatures. July brings a perfect storm of seasonal trends that create noticeable volatility in truck capacity across the U.S. Whether you’re a shipper trying to secure space or a carrier navigating shifting rates, understanding these summer dynamics is key to staying ahead.
🔄 What Is Capacity Volatility?
Capacity volatility refers to fluctuations in truck availability, especially in relation to freight volume and regional demand. In July, several factors align to tighten or loosen capacity on short notice, impacting both spot and contract markets.
Boosted Capacity from Southern Lanes
On the flip side, July still delivers expanded capacity from the South, thanks to harvest season and household relocations. According to ATS, inbound freight into southern states is abundant meaning short-haul availability is high, sometimes even offering competitive rates. However, once trucks are loaded southbound, outbound capacity tightens unless carriers are incentivized
This dynamic lets shippers secure inland haulings more easily, but when moving goods out of the South, expect sticker shock on rate quotes.
New Federal Mandate: English Proficiency for Drivers
As of June 25, 2025, federal inspectors are enforcing a longstanding regulation requiring drivers to “read and speak English sufficiently” including understanding signage and communicating with officials through a 2-step exam. Drivers failing to demonstrate proficiency are immediately placed out-of-service, reversing a 2016 FMCSA policy
The move aims to bolster safety and operational clarity—but in key border regions like Laredo, NJ, and Houston, it temporarily reduces available driver capacity, especially for immigrant and non-native English-speaking professionals
☀️ Why July Is a Unique Month in Freight
1. Produce Season in Full Swing
From California to Georgia, July marks the peak of the produce shipping season. This increases pressure on reefer (refrigerated) capacity, especially in the Southeast and West Coast, pulling trucks away from other markets and causing imbalances.
2. Household Moves & Construction
Summer is the peak season for residential and commercial moves. Flatbed and box truck demand increases as families relocate and businesses take on construction and expansion projects.
3. Holiday Disruptions
The 4th of July holiday creates mini capacity crunches as many drivers take time off and fewer trucks are on the road. This temporary dip in availability can spike spot rates in the days surrounding the holiday.
4. Open-Deck Demand Spikes
July tends to drive higher demand for open-deck and flatbed trailers, especially in the South and Midwest, as building materials, industrial equipment, and oversized loads move at higher volumes
5. Surge in Imports Driving East & West Coast Demand
With recent tariffs partially rolled back and companies rushing to restock inventory, import volumes are climbing at key ports like LA, Long Beach, Savannah, and Houston. According to Maersk, drayage capacity is tightening as these containers arrive—forcing inland fleets to reposition chassis and trailers quickly. This overseas freight surge adds pressure to spring demand and deepens capacity stress during peak summer months.
🚛 Impact on Rates & Transit Times
- Spot Market Rates often rise in response to tight capacity especially in reefer and flatbed lanes.
- Transit Delays become more likely as regional truck shortages force longer pickup windows or extended dwell times.
- Carrier Availability becomes unpredictable, especially in agricultural hotbeds or regions affected by weather or wildfires.
📍 Regional Hotspots to Watch
| Region | Key Volatility Drivers |
| Southeast (FL, GA) | Produce shipping, port congestion |
| Midwest (IL, IN, OH) | Flatbed freight, auto manufacturing |
| Southwest (TX, AZ) | Cross-border trade, high heat impacts |
| West Coast (CA, WA) | Produce surges, import volumes from Asia |
July may be unpredictable, but it’s also an opportunity. With the right planning and insights, your freight can keep moving while others get stuck chasing capacity. Understanding seasonal trends and staying proactive is the difference between delayed shipments and delivering ahead of schedule.
If your team needs help navigating summer volatility, reach out to R2X we’re ready to help you xecute with confidence.
